ISSN 1662-4009 (online)

ESPE Yearbook of Paediatric Endocrinology (2025) 22 11.1 | DOI: 10.1530/ey.22.11.1

ESPEYB25 11. Obesity and Weight Regulation The New Forecast is Worrying (1 abstracts)

11.1. Global, regional, and national prevalence of child and adolescent overweight and obesity, 1990-2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the global burden of disease study 2021

Stefanie GBD 2021 Adolescent BMI Collaborators


GBD 2021 Adolescent BMI Collaborators


Lancet 2025 Mar 8;405(10481):785-812. PMID: 40049185. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00397-6. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40049185/

Brief Summary: Using the established methods of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, this article presents modeled overweight and obesity rates for children and adolescents from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts extending through 2050. Between 1990 and 2021, the prevalence of both overweight and obesity rose markedly across all global regions, indicating that existing strategies to limit these increases have been largely ineffective. Projections beyond 2021 suggest that overweight rates during childhood and adolescence may plateau, primarily due to continued growth in obesity prevalence. Notably, obesity is anticipated to keep increasing across all populations and regions worldwide.

Historically, addressing undernutrition in young children has been a central focus for governments and donors across low- and middle-income countries. While continued investment in combating undernutrition remains essential, global nutrition priorities must now broaden to also address the rising prevalence of excess weight among children and adolescents in these countries. Low- and middle-income countries, in particular, face a limited timeframe during which investments targeting overnutrition can yield the greatest impact. Crucially, efforts to curb excess weight need not detract from undernutrition programs. These efforts demand multisectoral collaboration and comprehensive strategies that address the multifaceted drivers of obesity, including nutrition, physical activity, lifestyle, and environmental factors.

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